Lesson and Assessments - Probability of Events

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Summary, Goals
and Standards

Progression of Skills (outline)

Skills students should have prior to beginning this lesson are:

Skills students should begin building with this tool box are:

Learning how to determine the number of possible outcomes to a chance event
Learning how to explain the likelihood of an outcome to an event as a decimal and fraction between 0 and 1, and a percentage.
Learning how to express an outcome to a chance event in terms of impossible, unlikely, likely, and certain.

Students will analyze the knowledge they have acquired by:

Gathering data from their manipulative to interpret possible outcomes.
Predicting the outcome of an event occurrence using the terms "unlikely, likely, impossible, or certain."
Deeper thinkers may be able to resonate more greatly with the chance of real world events occurring. See PBS SEARCH AND RESCUE in Real-World Applications.

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This should be completed before the slideshow, and done independently.

GRAB ATTENTION: Suggested questions of relativity to the modern day student.- “How likely are you to become a TikTok influencer with a checkmark by your screen name?” “How likely is it for an adult to win the lottery?” “What are the chances of flipping a heads-up on a penny?”

Review Probability Slideshow with students, or allow virtual students access to slides. Be sure to point out that the probability calculation in the example assumes that each National Football League team has an equal chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Matching definitions guided note sheet- This may be done as the slideshow is occurring or after the slideshow conclusion either independently or as a whole group.
Likeliness Chart Worksheet- Either work on the assignment with the students as a whole group, or ask for individual work time to allow for multiple chances of scaffolding. {Scaffolding possibilities- give student total number of outcomes for each tangible item listed in assignment (examples: a deck has 52 cards, dice have 6 sides each)}
Alternative game for further probability inquiry at Mr. Nussbaum’s Website

Allow students time to productive struggle. Continue to check for understanding periodically with students and preview their answers. If the student has made a mistake, encourage them to take a second look at the question and ask them what their answer means and why they have selected it. Lead them to review steps in the slideshow.

“Nothing is impossible.” Numerically, any event could have several impossible probabilities that cannot occur. For example, it is impossible to roll an 8 on a standard six sided die
Probabilities of chance events occurring are not the same type of probabilities of events that include other factors, such as skill. For example, a basketball game cannot be dependent on a numerical chance, but rather the skill level of the teams.

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Post-assessment and answer key:
- Allow students to pair up if in person
- Post- Assessment and Example Answer
- Virtual Manipulatives Via Toy Theater for the virtual learner

Ensure access to graphic organizer.
Allow students to choose manipulative of preference with 6 or more possible outcomes (one die, spinner, deck of cards).
Set roughly 10 minutes for students to come up with 2 outcome questions.
Have students collect 10 data entries (variable dependent on time constraint).
Refrain from allowing students to use certain manipulatives such as a coin.
Ask open ended questions- “Now what are the chances that I will draw a red marble twice in a row? What is the probability of becoming a millionaire by the age of 30?” Do not attempt to answer these, but allow students to ponder as they are higher level math inquiries.

Real World- Application of Search and Rescue missions using probability. A video featured on PBS that supports students in analyzing decisions and strategies using probability concepts.